6세아동에서 2년후우식경험영구치면수증가여부를 예측하는 모형의 개발에 관한 연구
A Study on the models predicting 6-year-old children's DMFS increment in two year
박덕영, 문혁수, 정천기,
소속 상세정보
박덕영 ( ) - 서울대학교
문혁수 ( ) - 서울대학교
정천기 ( ) - 서울대학교
KMID : 0355419930170020240
Abstract
Although caries prevalence of many developed countries has been decreased, caries prevalence n Korea is still increasing.
To improve the dental health status efficiently, it is necessary to predict6-year-old children at high risk to develop dental caries during specific period, and to concentrate preventive trial upon them.
The aim of this study was to develop the models predicting 6-year-old children's DMFS increment in two years. For this purpose, 989 first-grade elementary school children were selected for longitudinal study. The selected subjects were surveyed
by
calibrated examiner in 1991. And 713 subjects were reexamined in 1993. Fourteen predictor variables, such as sex, prior DMFS, prior DMFS, prior dmfs, water fluoridation, frequency of snack intake, habits of snack intake, effect of dietary sucrose
level,
frequency of toothbrusing, existence of brothers or sisters, frequency of dental visit, employment of mother, salivary flow level, salivary concentration of lactobacilli, and colony count number of streptococcus mutans in 0.1% peptone gargling
solution,
were selected in this study. The DMFS increment in two years was used as a respondent variable which was categorized high/low risk. A child who developed more than one DMFS increment during 2 years was categorized to high risk child. And a child
who
developed no DMFS increment during 2 years was categorized to low risk child.
Using linear discriminant analysis, dental caries prediction models were developed for all surface, pit and fissures and smooth surfaces.
@ES The obtained result were as follows:
@EN 1. Eight predictor variables were used to define prediction model for all surlaces. The model produced a sensitivity of 71.4%, a specificity of 66.3% and a predictive values of 68.8% for 2-year DMFS increment prediction in 6-year-old
children.
2. Six predictor variables were used to define prediction model for pits and fissures. The model produced a sensitivity of 79.7%, a specificity of 64.2% and a predictive values of 71.8% for 2-year DMFS increment prediction in 6-year-old
children.
3. Six predictor variables were used to define prediction model for smooth surfaces. The model produced a sensitivity of 74.1%, a specificity of 71.4% and a predictive values of 71.6% for 2-year DMFS increment prediction in 6-year-old children.
키워드
원문 및 링크아웃 정보
등재저널 정보